LAST SUNDAY, Peace Adviser Teresita
Quintos-Deles announced that the negotiating panels of the Government of
the Philippines (GPH) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) had
signed the Annex on Revenue Generation and Wealth Sharing in Kuala
Lumpur. The timing is impeccable -- two weeks before President Benigno
Simeon Aquino III (PNoy) delivers his State of the Nation Address (SONA)
before Congress. PNoy will have much to say in his SONA -- on the
economy, on the Western Philippine Sea, and on peace. (Will he mention
charter change, I wonder?)
The Philippine Center for Islam and
Democracy (PCID) and other organizations have issued statements
congratulating both panels for ironing out the wrinkles in the fabric of
the annex. The PCID statement lauded the panels’ “steadfast resolve to
achieve a compromise regarding such a contentious and important issue”
but hoped that the annex “will strengthen the foundation for genuine
fiscal autonomy for the Bangsamoro.” (As I have often described autonomy
in my lectures at universities thus: a young man is not autonomous --
much less independent -- if he has to run home to Mama to ask for
allowance in order to treat his girl friend to a movie.)
As the PCID has consistently pointed out over the last decade, without
financial viability, autonomy is only good on paper. We have only to
review the performance of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao and
the provinces of Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Lanao del Sur and Maguindanao
after the signing of the 1996 Final Peace Agreement (FPA) with the Moro
National Liberation Front. In September 2006, during the 10th
anniversary of the signing of the FPA, MNLF Chair Nur Misuari said that
the FPA had to be raised from the dead. At the time, he was incarcerated
on charges of rebellion. (He was released after eight years, since no
evidence was found to support the charges.)
Any analysis of autonomy in Muslim Mindanao cannot be meaningfully
accomplished without a discussion of the historical antecedents that
have determined the path in which peace and development have been
pursued in the southern Philippines. This discussion of autonomy cannot
be divorced from the different stages in the peace efforts with the
Muslim separatists, as well as the steps taken after the so-called
“Final Peace Agreement” was signed in 1996 between the Philippine
government and the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). After all, it
was to conciliate the interests of the Muslims as represented by the
MNLF that the idea of autonomy in Muslim Mindanao was first advanced.
The reality of ARMM, which had led PNoy to label it as a “failed
experiment,” is this: 16 years after the signing of the 1996 FPA, Muslim
Mindanao remains as the least served region with the lowest human
development indicators, poorest of the poor, and has the lowest
contribution to gross domestic product. It has become even more conflict
affected since 1996 and has the highest unemployment rate, with half of
the adult population in the dark due to illiteracy (over 600,000 of the
adult population are functionally illiterate). The ARMM government,
burdened by inefficiency and lack of funds for development as well as
plagued by corruption since 1996, has failed to deliver dividends of
peace to the Bangsamoro.
With the signing of the Annex on Revenue Generation and Wealth Sharing,
the Transition Commission now has enough fuel to start the machinery of
crafting the Basic Law. Is the TC prepared? The 15 members of the TC,
headed by MILF panel chair Iqbal, were appointed six months ago. I
understand that the TC had been unable to function due to organizational
problems such as the legal foundation for government to disburse funds
to the commission. Unfortunate that such an issue had not been
considered before the members were appointed. Luckily, international
friends of Mindanao such as Japan intervened and provided training
programs for the members of the TC. National agencies and civil society
organizations have also stepped into the breach to provide briefings and
training and round tables. The TC members must be champing at the bit,
raring to start drafting the Basic Law.
What are the next steps, assuming there are no more organizational constraints for the TC?
PNoy’s term ends in 2016. We have two and a half years to draft the
basic law, have Congress pass the legislation, and implement a
transition period before the new Bangsamoro Region will have its first
regional election. Will all these happen by 2016? Too tight a time line,
many will agree. However, we have to march to the beat of PNoy’s
drummers on the “daang matuwid” towards a better future.
At this point, the critical step is to look at options for enabling
inclusive growth to prosper in the ARMM and the governance mechanisms
required.
It is crucial that the Transition Commission begin discussions with key
sectors in order to flesh out the Framework Agreement for the
Bangsamoro, given the details as set out in the documents already
signed. Before the annex on wealth sharing, both parties had signed,
last February, the Annex on Transitional Arrangements and Modalities
(TAM) which describes the structure of the Bangsamoro regional
government as a ministerial form and the Terms of Reference for the
Independent Commission on Policing (ICP), referring to the appropriate
form, structures and relationships of the police force for the
Bangsamoro. In January, both parties had signed the terms of reference
for the Third Party Monitoring Team (TPMT). The TPMT will review,
assess, evaluate, and monitor the implementation of the Framework
Agreement on the Bangsamoro (FAB) and its annexes.
The TC can now start discussions on the transition mechanisms, the form
of government, relationships between and among regional government,
national government and local government, and now the details on fiscal
autonomy -- taxation being a key foundation.
I have wondered why there was such a fuss over the sharing arrangements
on taxes when even 100% share for the Bangsamoro would still result in
zero, given the almost non-existent taxable enterprises and inefficient
collection mechanisms. I do not anticipate drastic changes over the next
five years, given the fact that the region is the least served by the
government, with the lowest absorptive capacity with the weakest
incentives for business.
Last November, we at PCID finally sparked the interest of the Foundation
for Economic Freedom (FEF) on the economic issues pertinent to enabling
the growth of a robust economy for the Bangsamoro. Together, we have
developed a proposal for a series of workshops that would bring to the
table hard-nosed business leaders, economists, experts to meet with
leaders of the Bangsamoro to develop a menu of viable options. FEF,
after years of operation, finally had a session on the peace process.
GPH panel chair Miriam Coronel Ferrer gave a talk during at FEF’s dinner
forum last month. In attendance were three former Finance secretaries
-- Cesar Virata, Roberto de Ocampo and Ernest Leung.
Since January, we have met with officials of the Philippine government
and development partners, leaders of the Bangsamoro (MILF Chair Murad,
the Bangsamoro Development Authority, ARMM officials and businessmen)
and key Mindanao leaders. Thus far, all agree that attention on
developing a strong economic foundation for the Bangsamoro Region is
crucial to its political autonomy.
(It is serendipity that a former World Bank Country Director for the
Philippines, Thomas Allen, is a Fellow of FEF. He leads the initiative,
which is funded by the AusAID. We at PCID, cognizant of the fact that
business and economics is not our strong suit, have convinced the FEF to
take lead, especially since Tom Allen is directing the project.)
If the Bangsamoro will follow the precedent set by ARMM -- where
government officials encamp in Malacañang to follow up on their share of
Internal Revenue Allotments or funding for projects -- then the
Bangsamoro will be just that young man waiting for allowance from Mama.
According to Carol Arguillas of Mindanews, MILF panel Chair Mohagher
Iqbal texted her: “I am pleased but right now I still see the bumpy road
ahead. There are still many challenges ahead.”
But we remain optimists. PCID’s statement: “Although challenges are in
the horizon as talks about Power Sharing and Normalization are about to
commence, PCID acknowledges that the signing of the Annex on Revenue
Generation and Wealth Sharing is a good sign that both panels are
committed towards achieving a just and fair agreement.”
Further, PCID states: “We assert the primacy of the peace process and we
ask both Panels to continue fast-tracking the remaining Annexes of the
negotiations. May the Transition Commission conduct parallel efforts in
preparing for the draft Bangsamoro Basic Law. We, as civil society, are
prepared to assist in any way.”
source: Businessworld Column of Amina Rasul
No comments:
Post a Comment